Ranking the NBA Western Conference & Each Team’s X-Factor

I decided to rank every NBA team in the Western Conference ahead of the 2025-26 season, as well as select their X-factor — not the best player, but a crucial one who can swing their team’s success. Rankings are based on my outlook on who has the best chance to win the conference and advance to The Finals.Like every year, the West is extremely deep and unpredictable. Ranking every team correctly is a tall, nearly impossible task. But I tried my best:

Favorites:

1. OKC Thunder

X-Factor: Chet Holmgren

The youngest champions of all time return their entire playoff rotation. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off of one of the single greatest individual seasons in NBA history at age 26. Simultaneously, the Thunder performed as the best defense in the NBA and one of the best defenses of all time last season. Also, last year’s X-factor, Jalen Williams, MORE than worked out. However, even for the very best, repeating is tough. If it were a regular thing, the Celtics would’ve done it last year like they were supposed to. If OKC wants to become the first back-to-back champion since Golden State in 2017-18, like many expect them to, the Thunder will need not only another great year from their deep set of pesky role players, but also another step forward offensively from their third young star, Chet Holmgren. JDub proved himself as an elite second option to Shai… now it’s time for Chet to step up and unleash his offensive potential. Right now, he’s a top 25 guy, but he needs to become a top 10 or at least a top 15 player in the NBA. If he does so, the Thunder will likely repeat and enter ultra-rare history — not just NBA history, but sports history. The bar could not be any higher, though, and if Holmgren doesn’t take that leap offensively, it’s hard to see OKC reaching it.

Contenders:

2. Denver Nuggets

X-Factor: Jamal Murray

The Nuggets are title favorites, once again. They bring back four of five starters, swapping Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson this offseason. Johnson provides a defensive boost at the 3 while mimicking Porter’s lethal shooting. More importantly, I’d argue, they no longer have to rely on the youngsters, Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson, to make an impact past their readiness. Denver bolstered their bench with multiple moves. They moved off of Russell Westbrook, replacing him with their 6th man from the 2023 championship team, Bruce Brown, after a two-year stint away from the team. They also get the best backup big Jokic has had to date, adding Jonas Valanciunas to improve the non-Nikola minutes. They also signed Tim Hardaway Jr., who started for a very good Pistons team last year for shooting depth. Because the bench is much improved and Porter is replaced with a less volatile version of himself, the Nuggets are even better than the team that just took the Thunder to seven. To really return to triumph, Jamal Murray, Jokic’s two-man-game partner, will need to return to form as one of the league’s best playoff risers — something he hasn’t quite been able to replicate since they won it all a couple of years ago.

3. San Antonio Spurs

X-Factor: Dylan Harper

How good can Dylan Harper be in year 1? That’s the question for this team in terms of how far they can go. Victor Wembanyama is already All-NBA, Defensive Player of the Year, and MVP level if he can stay healthy, and De’Aaron Fox is a proven all-star point guard who will only flourish playing with the alien. Reigning ROTY Stephon Castle is also a bit of a wildcard due to shooting concerns, but he is at least a young, two-way Swiss Army knife who does everything else extremely well. Outside of the cornerstones, the Spurs have a genuinely good collection of support players — Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Jeremy Sochan, Keldon Johnson, and even rookie Carter Bryant provide two-way role playing on the wing while Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk bring reliable, complimentary size off the bench. If Dylan Harper, who will be coming off the bench, can play at a Rookie of the Year level, that would also put him in the running for Sixth Man of the Year. I strongly believe that many are undermining how dangerous the Spurs could really be. I aggressively like the potential of this team over close competitors.

Contenders or Pretenders?:

4. Houston Rockets

X-Factor: Reed Sheppard

Last season, Houston was just a true go-to scorer away from being a legit championship contender. But after upgrading from Jalen Green to Kevin Durant — going from a guy who couldn’t get the job done to a two-time Finals MVP generally viewed as a top-five scorer of all time — it’s safe to say the Rockets successfully made the jump to the next level. But tragedy struck in late September when starting PG Fred VanVleet suffered a season-ending torn ACL injury. 2023 4th overall pick Amen Thompson was the X-factor, before a much heavier load got placed onto Reed Sheppard. Picked 3rd just one year ago, Sheppard is now tasked with quickly developing into a starting-caliber point guard despite barely playing in his rookie year. Sengun, Smith, Thompson, Adams, and Eason will impose a physically dominant identity and the Rockets will be a defensive juggernaut. But if they want to make the leap into serious contention, Kevin Durant needs help creating offense on the perimeter. If they can get it from Sheppard, this team is dangerous — but the VanVleet injury is decimating, and drops this team a few spots.

5. LA Clippers

X-Factor: Bradley Beal

Will the Clippers choke again? I mean, probably. But they’re as talented as they’ve ever been. Like every year, the Clips have a ton of hope but equal concern. Kawhi Leonard could be All-NBA and I’m not taking just 3rd team, or he could miss 80% of the season. James Harden could have another all-star season just to be a negative in the playoffs. Bradley Beal is now on the team, continuing the trend. They also brought in Chris Paul, 40, to run the second unit. Add in John Collins, who averaged 19 PPG last season, and could be a reliable starting power forward next to Leonard and Zubac, or a 6th man of the year frontrunner, whichever way Ty Lue decides to use him. Also, I can’t not mention how good Ivica Zubac was last season, making All-Defense and receiving 15 All-NBA votes. Past the stars, the Clippers are really deep. In addition to CP3 off the bench, they also have guys like Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn who may even start in place of Collins and Beal, plus Brook Lopez, Nic Batum, and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Overall, I think the Clippers have championship talent even if that potential may not be reached. But if Beal, who is only on LA’s books for roughly 10% annually of what he was making in Phoenix, can be at least as good as Norman Powell, that’s a difference maker. I will acknowledge that if we’ve learned anything from history, you’re probably better off not putting your word or your money on the Los Angeles Clippers. But because of the real potential, I’m ranking them pretty high in the four-through-eight cluster.

6. Golden State Warriors

X-Factor: Jonathan Kuminga & Brandon Podziemski

The Warriors defense led by Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler is elite, and Steph Curry is still a legit superstar on offense. That combination rings bells of the 2022 Warriors, who won a ring. Even now, Curry is still capable of being the best player on a championship team. He’s still that good. The Warriors also have a couple of solid veterans in Hield and Horford, but the rest of the roster is largely young and inconsistent. Kuminga has real two-way potential, but is raw, an inconsistent shooter, and demands the ball, making him a wildcard in terms of fit. But if he could develop a reliable three-point shot, Kuminga could be an All-star and the missing piece for the Warriors. Until he does that, however, he remains shrouded in an aura of uncertainty. Podziemski is another talented X-factor just in terms of how consistent he can be, and even Moody carries some potential with uncertainty. Nonetheless, the Warriors get a solid ranking because of Curry, defense, and potential.

7. LA Lakers

X-Factor: DeAndre Ayton

The Lakers’ lack of a center was exposed in the first round of the playoffs, where they were outed disappointingly in five games. In the closeout game, LA was embarrassed by Rudy Gobert, who flat out dominated them with 27 points (12-15 FG) and 24 rebounds. So what did the Lakers do? They went out and signed DeAndre Ayton, who was bought out by the Trail Blazers. Ayton is a walking double-double and back in 2021 was a starting center in The Finals, but has since regressed as effort and consistency have become prominent issues. If Luka and Lebron can stay healthy, the Lakers have potential to have an elite offense with their collection of complimentary players such as Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. But whether DeAndre Ayton can be a good enough starting center to make up for what they lacked last season — largely rim protection and overall paint presence — will determine whether they are more of a 3-4-5 seed, or a 7-8 seed.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves

X-Factor: Rob Dillingham

I think the Wolves can make up for the loss of Nickeil Alexander-Walker considering the postseason emergence of Terrence Shannon Jr. plus Jaylen Clark and Donte Divincenzo playing similar roles. What I am concerned about, however, is the starting point guard position. Mike Conley is an awesome veteran leader and would make for a great backup point guard, but do you really want him, at 38, starting at point guard in May? Minnesota drafted Rob Dillingham 8th overall in 2024, but he seems a ways away from being ready to fill that lead role. Divincenzo will likely play a lot of point guard this year, but that doesn’t excite me. I was also very unimpressed with Julius Randle as a second option in the WCF versus OKC last season. Can Ant and the rest of the core win enough games to be a playoff team in the West again? Sure. But the Timberwolves remain yet to be a legit Finals threat until Dillingham, or someone else, is ready to elevate the starting lineup. I may sound negative, and the Wolves very well may end up first in the very difficult to rank four-through-eight cluster. At the end of the day, though, this Minnesota core has to take the next step to be looked at as a success. 

Playoff / Play-In Teams: 

9. Dallas Mavericks

X-Factor: Kyrie Irving

When healthy, the Dallas Mavericks as constructed are a legitimate championship contender — and would likely rank as high as in my top three. Anthony Davis, when on the court, is an elite defensive anchor who also gives you 25 and 12 a night. Kyrie Irving, when on the court, is an all-star point guard with years of finals experience. They just landed the number 1 overall pick, Cooper Flagg. They have the same coach that brought them to The Finals in 2024 in Jason Kidd plus a great collection of role players —  P.J. Washington, Klay Thompson, Lively and Gafford, D’Angelo Russell and Naji Marshall. While this is a championship level roster, the problem is that even if Flagg is awesome, Kyrie tore his ACL in March. Dallas would need Irving back and near full strength in the regular season to have a Finals chance, though, and I think that’s just kind of impossible.

10. Memphis Grizzlies

X-Factor: Ja Morant

The Grizzlies kind of threw in the towel for this season when they traded sniper Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic. In exchange, Memphis received Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and four first-round picks plus a pick swap. Trading away a key piece of their young trio — Morant, Jackson Jr., and Bane — for draft capital, signified a clear change in direction for the Grizzlies. But what is not clear, is which direction exactly is Memphis trying to go in? They have enough talent to make the postseason and too much to avoid it, but not enough to win in May. Oh, and they fired their coach, Taylor Jenkins, after six years with the team in favor of former assistant Tuomas Iisalo. So at least there is direction in that aspect, but the road is still unclear. Are the Grizzlies trying to win? Are they planning to keep Ja and JJJ long term, or are they on their way out too? Regardless, the X-factor for the Grizzlies and whether they are a playoff team is Ja Morant. Can he play 60 games — can he even play 50?

11. New Orleans Pelicans 

X-Factor: Zion Williamson

Like the Grizzlies, whether the Pelicans can make the playoffs in a deep Western Conference depends on if their polarizing superstar can stay on the court. Williamson is a career 25 PPG scorer, but has only appeared in 214 games out of 472 possible. The Pelicans were actually pretty good in 2022-23 and 2023-24 when Zion played (59-40 total), but it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t play. And neither do the great role players they have like Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones. Nor do the other moves they made, like acquiring Jordan Poole, Jeremiah Fears, and Derik Queen. Because without Zion playing 60+ games and being healthy in the postseason, the Pelicans are going nowhere.

Play-In at Best:

12. Sacramento Kings

X-Factor: Zach LaVine

The Kings are not very good but they’re also not awful. Nevertheless, that’s not going to get you very far in the West. This is a collection of good players but there’s not very many great ones, other than Sabonis. Lavine is good but he is hard to rely on because of injuries, and DeRozan is good but he’s out of his prime. That trio is, again, good, but not good enough in the current landscape of the league, and especially this conference. Keon Ellis is a nice young role player and Schroeder and Monk are cool veteran spark plugs off the bench, but one of them or Westbrook has to start! That’s a problem. They’re also starting Keegan Murray at power forward, and he’s done nothing recently but decline, injure his thumb, and sign a five-year contract. Rookie first-round pick Nique Clifford will also look to make an impact. I see Sacramento being a fun play-in contender that would be in the Eastern playoffs. But in this conference, good luck.

13. Phoenix Suns

X-Factor: Jalen Green

When the Suns went to The Finals in 2021, they had a well-built roster: Devin Booker as the star scorer with an elite table-setting point guard in Chris Paul, and the rest of the roster filled out with plus role players like Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, and DeAndre Ayton. Since then, they have undergone a transition of ownership and dismantled their roster. Moving off of Paul was understandable given his age and decline, but they took the transition way too far, and in the wrong direction. Phoenix replaced their roster of good fits around Booker for two other guys who do the same thing as him. Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal are fantastic players, but they are horrible fits next to Booker, as all three are ball-dominant wing scorers who don’t offer much on defense. Plus, they were all making north of $50 million per year. Matt Ishbia turned one of the brightest franchises in the NBA into an absolute mess. If the Suns weren’t in the loaded West, there’d be “Free Booker” campaigns across the NBA media scope.

14. Portland Trail Blazers

X-Factor: Shaedon Sharpe / Scoot Henderson

The Blazers are… interesting, to say the least. Over the next three years, Portland owes $79 million, $82 million, and $88 million to Jerami Grant, Jrue Holiday, and Damian Lillard, who isn’t even playing this year (torn achilles). Holiday and Lillard are no-doubt great veteran presences in the locker room full of young talent, but Jerami Grant is just taking minutes. Portland does have a young core filled with potential, though, housing names like Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Donovan Clingan, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, and rookie, 16th overall pick, Yang Hansen, who had a very impressive Summer League. Sharpe will get an opportunity early in the season to prove himself while Scoot Henderson is out for a few months with a hamstring tear, before Henderson returns for his own opportunity. One of them, you’d think, and hope, have gotta work out with the mentorship in Portland’s building.

15. Utah Jazz

X-Factor: Isaiah Collier

While the Jazz have a deep pool of young, talented players around Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler, it’s still pretty much all potential. Isaiah Collier is a nice playmaker, but his shot needs serious work. No. 5 pick Ace Bailey has sky-high upside, yet he’s raw and comes with all kinds of question marks. Keyonte George can score in bunches, but he’s wildly inefficient. Brice Sensabaugh is another guy to keep an eye on, and Taylor Hendricks is another top-10 pick. Cody Williams might be the rawest of them all. Walter Clayton Jr. just led Florida to a national title and took home MOP honors, and Kyle Filipowski adds another skilled big to the mix. There’s no shortage of talent here — but until someone besides Markkanen or even Kessler truly breaks out, it’s all just hope and hypotheticals.